PERSPECTIVES AND REFLECTIONS

A Commodity Supercycle, But Not the One You Remember

May 10, 2026

We are entering a commodity supercycle, but not the traditional kind.

A prolonged capital cycle of underinvestment is colliding with geopolitical fragmentation, driving a shift from abundance to structural scarcity. The global market clearing mechanism is breaking down, replaced by regional pricing where commodities can remain out of equilibrium for extended periods, resulting in persistent, directional price trends not typically seen in prior cycles.

At the same time, a disconnect has emerged between physical and paper markets. Physical prices, visible in oil and many critical minerals, are already reflecting scarcity, while futures remain influenced by financial flows. This gap is unlikely to persist and will adjust to reflect underlying scarcity.

In this environment, price moves are no longer linear. In tight markets, they become discontinuous, with the potential for sharp, even parabolic upside. This is not a cycle for marginal exposure. Returns will be driven by direct commodity ownership or the highest torque equities.

The regime shift is increasingly visible in policy. As governments move to secure supply through strategic stockpiles and potential price floors, while others restrict access to physical materials, a clear message emerges. Critical minerals are now strategic assets. As supply is progressively ring fenced, price discovery weakens and equilibrium fades.

Investment implications:
Multi-year to decade-long technical price formations across commodities are now resolving to the upside, potentially toward price levels we cannot yet fully fathom. Precious metals moved first (see our deep dive on Precious Metals, Liquidity, and the Real Economy).. Oil is following and has recently broken out. Agriculturals are likely next. The next 5 to 8 years could see powerful, sustained moves across key commodity markets.

This is not a market for broad exposure. In a structurally scarce, fragmented system, focused positioning and correct sequencing across commodities matter. Commodities are now strategic assets. This is the setup for a commodity supercycle.

Platinum has quietly shifted regime.

Feb 16, 2026

For years it traded predominantly as an industrial metal. In 2025, after gold led the breakout and silver followed as the higher-beta transmission, platinum lagged—then caught up as precious-metals allocations broadened.

What matters is that this repricing coincided with continued tightness in the physical plumbing: episodes of elevated lease dynamics, backwardation, and thin deliverable and lendable inventory.

When macro flows meet inelastic supply, price discovery becomes non-linear. This is a core characteristic of the broader structural scarcity driving the new commodity supercycle. Platinum starts behaving less like a cyclical input and more like a balance-sheet stress asset—quiet in calm periods, consequential when access matters.

Gold anchors the macro bid.
Silver transmits it.
Platinum now participates—with far less elasticity.

Convexity.

Liquidity, the Real Economy, and Precious Metals

Feb 10, 2026

Financial markets and the real economy do not move in lockstep. Periods of abundant liquidity can sustain asset prices well beyond what contemporaneous economic data would suggest; when liquidity tightens or confidence shifts, adjustments tend to be nonlinear rather than gradual.

Recent moves in precious metals are often framed as momentum or fear trades. We see them differently. Historically, sustained advances in gold, silver, and platinum’s recent regime shift tend to emerge not during strong growth, but during periods when confidence in policy frameworks, currencies, or capital allocation quietly erodes—often while risk assets still appear resilient.

What matters less is short-term price action and more the underlying signals: prolonged underinvestment, rising marginal costs, structural supply constraints, and increasing segmentation of the global system. In such environments, supply and demand can remain out of equilibrium for extended periods, with prices acting as the primary clearing mechanism.

Recognition rarely happens all at once. It unfolds unevenly, over years rather than quarters, and only looks obvious in hindsight.